Why is there a 22LR ammo shortage?

I know that there have been at least two sustained periods of ammo shortage in recent years. OK, it is perfectly understandable that the COVID lockdown in many countries (and some US States) has disrupted supply chains and led to the inevitable panic buying and hoarding of toilet paper, etc. But, in Oregon at least, most of those shortages of basic consumer products are easing. It is evident that some cheap imported products (typically from China) like plastic storage boxes for example are still in short supply. But the Dollar Trees have mostly re-stocked with all of their imported tat.

I guess that Aguila in Mexico and CCI/Winchester/Federal in USA must have quite substantial production capacity for 22LR. There is a massive demand and many online vendors are now gouging whatever inflated price they can for the small remaining stocks of ammo.

So, why haven't those big producers ramped up production to meet the demand (and possibly apply a temporary surcharge to compensate for increased production/overtime costs)?

I read on this forum that Remington is in trouble - is that an indicator of just how badly the corporate raiders have hurt this industry? During a period when demand for guns and ammo has soared!

You think it’s bad now. I predict we have a real shit storm coming!

My guess is hording is a factor. As well in some state they would be at a reduced manufacturing rate due to having to work 6ft apart. Demand is probably at stupid high level. I also will say it all depends on how november goes.

It's my understanding that raw materials are becoming difficult to obtain as well.Mining and transport are being affected by the 'Rona.-Mike

I learned from the last few elections. I always make a substantial order a year before. Covid 19 threw an extra wrench in the works when it comes to jacketed bullets. Zero and Precision Delta have been out for awhile. Thank you Brazos for your HT coated bullets. Keep 'em coming!!

Bill

I've had good supplies on hand to this point and Brazos is doing a fantastic job on keeping many of us supplied.  I've placed multiple Brazos orders this summer and most of the time, they are delivered in a week or less.  

I do use a lot of match rimfire ammo and recently switched from CCI SV (dislike their new formula) and now use SK pistol match.  Good stuff but not cheap like CCI.  I would like to build my supply of match rimfire back up to pre-Covid levels.

✓Election year
✓Global pandemic
✓Riots in the streets
✓Big government getting bigger

Well, at the range a guy must have dumped 2000 rounds of 9mm in his hours of speed shooting.
Multiply this by thousands and multiple types of chamberings and the economical collapse.

+ the above

The ammo companies are working at full capacity and have been for years now.

They're not going to build new production facilities for what they view as a temporary situation.

This is from a friend of mine at ATK.

Outthere wrote:The ammo companies are working at full capacity and have been for years now.

They're not going to build new production facilities for what they view as a temporary situation.

This is from a friend of mine at ATK.

This - ^^^^^.

There are a lot of restrictions to building new ammo factories...by design.  One of the textbook moves is to affect the supply chain.  Guns without ammo = win.

New gun ownership has increase rather dramatically. 22lr is considered a beginner's cartridge by many, and is often recommended for training purposes. 

As far as adding production facilities, that takes capital, time, and more than likely some additional requirements due to the potential hazards of ammunition components.

Though not related to ammo production, A company I work with added a new production facility 2 years ago (bought an existing building and added new production lines), they are just starting to get production going at that facility. 

Dry fire is always available and  free. Not as fun by any means but with appropriate mindset it can be very educational.

It is the new gun owners during this time.  California has 1 million NEW GUN OWNERS since March.  They all want ammo.  If they buy one box, that’s 50 million rounds.... now multiply that by 10...  Just to give perspective Lake city Army Ammunition Plant makes 1 Billion rounds annually and it is NOT a small place.

I knew CA was to blame 

I have not had any problems getting march quality .22 LR ammo lately. Just got a shipment last week. Was also able to walk into a store yesterday and get 4,000 Remington 1 1/2 Small Pistol Primers. $32.50 a thousand.

Bob

That's impressive, especially in NY.  Primers are hard to come by...as they are in most election years.  I stocked up in advance.

Adding production capacity on a spike of demand is a sure way to go out of business.  If it's a trend (defined differently by industry and market drivers) then yes consider new capacity.  Impact in demand by new gun owners is usually a 3 month deal.  They buy the gun and shoot the heck out of it for 3 months then 80-90% of them put the gun in it's final resting place.  10% or maybe a little more find they enjoy shooting and now are at the range once or twice a month.  Then maybe 1-2% of that group go on to some type of competitive shooting.

Ammo demand aside any way you look at it there are 1 million new gun owners that now have a vested reason to support 2A.
- Dave

New gun owners! Well said Wobbley.

I had not really thought about that, but have heard all kinds of anecdotal stories along the same lines. Even my local club here in a very quiet part of Oregon has seen a surge in new members recently, most of them older folks who have bought their first handgun - scary! 

Yes, of course, they all need ammo and dronning describes a predictable cycle.

It seems that the high end match quality 22 is still available from several sources online. But the cheap plinking and practise ammo is hard to find. I bought a big stash of components and 22 several months ago, only to find that the 22 I bought in bulk at a decent price did not suit my guns well. Sold it on to another forum member - Cliff, enjoy! And do share it with the other shooters in Michigan!

I need to concentrate on improving my 45 shooting anyway, so I'll do just that and preserve my remaining stash of 22.

One positive on new gun owners is the trickle down effect and getting new faces in the shooting sports. I got my start in a similar manner. If you see new gun owners who want to learn how to shoot bullseye is a good way to improve proficiency and safety.

Some manufacturers will add capacity. I seem to recall Aguila building a new, large, 22 line in Mexico after the 2008 election. Of course - they don't suffer the same legal headwinds that the US manufacturers do.

Aguila, unobtainable

Most of the Aguila I've experienced has been of a lesser quality.  Which Aguila line is used the most in bullseye?

Aguila Super Extra Standard Velocity is very good for practise - slightly on the hot side - but it cycles most Euro guns nicely and runs Rugers and other plinkers well too. Very reliable, maybe not quite as consistently accurate as the old CCI SV, but think I shot my one and only clean 50 ft SF target with this ammo! Used to be widely available online for ~$2/box.

Aguila Pistol Match is possibly slightly more accurate, but a bit softer - similar to Eley Target. I found that I sometimes got FTF in a dirty gun or if the weather was damp/cold. Hence I chose to let mine go. It was available for ~$3/box.

If you can find any of these at all online now the gougers are asking ~$6/box or similar.

We have new members applying even at the private clubs I belong to. A few months ago we did a special class of new members in so as to allow Donald Junior get in without the normal wait time. Now we have to shoot while being watched by the secret service team.

Today was productive though too as I picked up 8 pounds of WST and 8 Pounds of Bullseye. I have enough Titewad to last me as I use a lot of it for shotgun loading.

Bob

What does Don Jr shoot at your club? I seem to remember he might be into long range F class style rifle.