Component supply factors

In a recent thread on old 22 ammo, Slamfire quoted the following report:-
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Army Not Producing Enough Ammunition

http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/archive/2003/May/Pages/Army_Not3866.aspx

To replace the obsolete rounds, the Army would have to produce 100,000 tons of war reserve ammunition a year for the next seven years. Past that point, it would need 50,000 tons to 60,000 tons a year to sustain the stockpile. That represents about “half the level of the Cold War buildup,” he said.

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I found that statement to be quite intriguing. In several fairly recent threads debating the sustained shortage of ammunition and, particularly, primers, which is ongoing, several commented on the huge increase in new gun owners boosting the demand for ammo, domestic producers having staffing problems, as well as the global raw material tight supply conditions resulting from COVID and, arguably, the Ukraine conflict.

So, I wonder whether the US Army has indeed been acquiring 100 Ktons/yr from 2004 for 7 years? Then 50 to 60 Ktons/yr thereafter. My WAG would be, probably not!

Another WAG – lets say that 10% of that tonnage is for small arms, mostly rifles and machine guns. https://www.quora.com/How-much-do-1-000-rounds-of-223-weigh
= 12kg/1000
6,000,000/ 12kg = 500,000 = 500,000,000 rounds of 223 ammo. Per year. Very roughly. And that is just to replenish stock that is going beyond “it’s sell by date”.

Yet another WAG – I have read that the USA (by far the biggest contributor – good job!) and some EU nations are supplying increasing amounts of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. The “headline” news reports are all about tanks, heavy missiles and jets, but I guess that a lot of small arms and ammo are going there too? I wonder whether large quantities of the “still serviceable” ammo is being shipped and the inventory replaced with new stock?

https://executivegov.com/2022/12/ukraine-war-prompts-dod-to-reassess-us-munitions-stockpile/

The Alan was rung months before even this article.